Cold weather has been one of the main contributors driving up gas prices locally and nationally recently, but experts don’t expect major increases throughout this winter season.
Delaware’s average price for a gallon of regular had risen 14 cents in a month and 5 cents since Friday, to $2.26 on Tuesday, mainly because of rising crude oil prices. Last year at this time, despite the effects of Hurricane Katrina, prices for a regular gallon of gas in Delaware was just $2.05, according to AAA. Nationally, the average was at $2.29 Tuesday, 9 cents more than a month ago and 15 cents more than last year.
Doug MacIntyre, a senior oil market analyst with the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, said the cold wave that took hold in the area this weekend, after days with temperatures in the mid-70s, has driven crude oil prices up, in turn driving up prices at the pump.
Barrels of crude oil sold for $63 Tuesday, up from less than $60 at this time last year, MacIntyre said.
“What we’ve seen with the onset of cold weather — there’s starting to be refineries out there getting crude to make heating oil as the reality of winter sets in,” MacIntyre said. “That drives up the demand, which drives up the price”
It doesn’t help that the United States is the worldwide leader in heating oil consumption, according to AAA spokeswoman Ela Voluck. Voluck also cited the cold weather as well as rising tensions in the Middle East, a pending OPEC meeting in which more oil production cutbacks are expected and higher demand over the Thanksgiving holiday as reasons for the shift in prices after a steady decline this fall.
“We’re dealing with a number of factors all pushing crude oil prices up, which in turn push prices up at the pump,” Voluck said.
Still, relative to the late July price of $78 for a barrel of crude oil and gasoline prices at more than $3 for much of the summer, the current situation does not seem that bad to most. And while Voluck and MacIntyre said they expect more small, incremental price increases throughout coming weeks, neither said they expected a dramatic increase that would have motorists paying anywhere near $3 a gallon again anytime soon.
“Absent any major oil supply prices, we really don’t see a dramatic rise in store,” until next spring when demand again picks up, MacIntyre said. “We don’t envision $2.50 nationally.”
“We don’t expect to see dramatic increases, barring any unforeseen circumstances,” Voluck added.
While gas prices soared past $3 this summer locally and nationwide, last year’s prices after the devastation of Hurricane Katrina limited production in that region still claim records. Delaware’s average price for a gallon of regular topped out last year on Sept. 7 at $3.23 — a still-standing record — and the national record was set at $3.06 a gallon on Sept. 5.