While crisis in the Middle East is not new, it now has a new look.
Hezbollah, a group with a long history of terrorism, crossed the Israelis border and took two Israelis soldiers prisoners last week. Hezbollah’s boldness, which followed on the heels of Hamas capturing an Israeli solder, brought new crisis to the Middle East. Now the Israelis are determined to show that capturing their soldiers brings terrorism to a new level. Where will it end?
The new look is that Hezbollah and Hamas underwent a metamorphosis, becoming political parties much like a caterpillar becomes a butterfly. They became important political forces in their respective countries, but still have connections with terrorism.
After Yasser Arafat’s death, the terrorist Hamas group took control over the Palestinian government through democratic elections. And Hezbollah holds 14 seats in Lebanon’s parliament and has become a popular force in Lebanon politics. Thus, lines are blurred between political parties, governments and terrorist groups — which is an ominous development in Middle East politics.
The Palestinians set the precedent for this development when the terrorist Hamas group ran candidates for elections early this year and took control as the new government in Palestine.
When Hamas took over the government, it in effect put the “road map,” the process for peace negotiation between Palestinians and Israel in the deep freeze. The United States subsequently suspended foreign aid funding for the Palestinians. With Israel withholding its collection of Palestinian monies, the Palestinians turned to Iran and other Arab countries for funding to sustain its government. Hamas revoked its 16-month truce with Israel in June.
The recent crisis has serious implications. Hezbollah has acquired some new weapons from Iran, including the Iranian Fajr-3, Fajr-5 and Zelzal-2. It is the long-range missiles, which are capable of hitting northern Israel cities and as far as the fringe of the West Bank, that are giving Israel concern.
Another implication is that there are many American citizens in Lebanon who may be trapped in rapidly expanding war. The U.S. has a history of rescuing American citizens who are trapped in serious situations. Ehud Olmert, the new Israeli prime minister, says Israel will not stop its attacks until its soldiers are released, the Hezbollah rocket attacks ceased and Hezbollah is disarmed.
Another implication is Iran could be drawn into the crisis. Iran has religious linkage with Shia minority in Lebanon.
While this event is not likely, in a rapidly escalating war any scenario is possible. Nations at the G-8 summit did not speak with any agreement on the crisis in the Middle East. President George W. Bush said that Israel has a right to defend itself. Other nations said that Israel’s military response was disproportionate to the attacks.
What of Hezbollah’s motives?
Like Hamas, Hezbollah provides many necessary welfare services to poor people and has built its base of popular support. The leader of Hezbollah, Hasan Nasrallah, is a very popular leader in Lebanon. He also leads the Shia minority, which is fighting to protect itself in a factious Lebanon.
Much of what Hezbollah will do will depend upon his leadership. When Israel left Lebanon in 2000, he claimed success but had little to do with it. His political strategies inside Lebanon seem to be a mixture of shrewdness and pragmatic politics, e.g. forming a coalition with a Christian general. Essentially, his personality is a puzzle to most. It is not clear that the attacks by Hezbollah are in support of Palestine, but many think so.
The United States will have to find a new strategy in the Middle East. The old one of not dealing with anything smacking of terrorism is not working and is bringing us to the brink of a larger crisis: a broader war in the Middle East with the certain consequence of much higher gasoline prices.
Perry J. Mitchell is a retired political science professor living in Ocean View.